WSJ.com - Facing Up to Thailand's Separatism November 11, 2004 COMMENTARY DOW JONES REPRINTS This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers, use the Order Reprints tool at the bottom of any article or visit: www.djreprints.com. • See a sample reprint in PDF format. • Order a reprint of this article now. Facing Up to Thailand's Separatism By THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK November 11, 2004 BANGKOK -- The latest bout of violence in southern Thailand should be viewed with utmost alarm. On Oct. 25, a boisterous but peaceful protest at a police station in Narathiwat province swelled from 200 at dawn to 2,000 by midday. The demonstrators were there to demand the release of six local Muslim men held on charges of owning firearms. By dusk, security forces had gunned down six of the protesters, and wounded 17. As midnight passed the next day, another 78 protesters had died of "suffocation" and "convulsion" as they were stuffed into military trucks for transport to a military camp in nearby Pattani province. Another dead protester was fished out of Tak Bai river the next day. In a 24-hour span, the authorities had become responsible for 85 deaths in one of the three predominantly Muslim provinces in Thailand's restive south, which has been beset by ongoing violence since January. But what Thailand cannot afford at this point is an escalation of violence beyond these three southernmost provinces. Much depends on what Bangkok does from this point on. Taking place less than six months since a bloodbath in Pattani in which soldiers killed 106 Muslim militants, including 32 at the historically significant Krue Se Mosque, the Tak Bai incident has landed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in his worst political crisis since he assumed office almost four years ago. At issue is whether the Tak Bai fiasco represents a tipping point in what has become a growing Muslim separatist insurgency. Despite Mr. Thaksin's pacification measures, the risk of violence spreading beyond Thailand's southern border provinces has increased markedly. The prime minister only has himself to blame, as he has mishandled the Tak Bai protest in specific, and the southern insurgency in general. By his own admission, Mr. Thaksin personally took charge of the situation, and gave the green light for the crackdown. After security officers exercised their authority and force excessively (the 78 detainees died under official custody in a most gruesome fashion, with their hands tied and their bodies piled on top of each other in cramped military trucks) Mr. Thaksin added insult to injury by insinuating that the Muslim detainees suffocated to death because they had been weakened by fasting during Ramadan. After the carnage, the prime minister back-pedaled in crisis-management mode in a nationally televised speech on Oct. 29. In the speech, he said the protest was a law enforcement problem, not separatism with potential links to regional terrorism. He expressed regret, but issued no apology. Instead, he splashed compensation money on the victims' families, with promises of more government spending to improve job prospects, education and living standards. Although the speech went down well in most parts of this overwhelmingly Buddhist country, it likely aggravated grievances and inflamed tensions in the south where Muslims of Malay ethnic descent predominate. Since the speech, daily violence has increased in the south. It is also trending upward in terms of fatality and frequency. Killing techniques have also become more heinous, and now including beheadings. In the ensuing fallout from Tak Bai, Mr. Thaksin and his government were roundly condemned by the international community, particularly the Muslim world. Of particular significance was former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed's suggestion that Thailand's southern border provinces be granted autonomous self-rule, a remark that is likely to reinforce the southern separatist cause. The chairman of Narathiwat's Central Islamic Committee warned that "hell" would follow. More ominously, the Pattani United Liberation Organization, one of several separatist movements long active in the southernmost provinces, pledged to "use every means available" to "fight to free the land of Pattani from Thai colonialists." It was a reference to the Thai (Siamese at the time) annexation of the Sultanate of Pattani a century ago. In a subsequent meeting at the palace, the Thai monarch urged Thaksin to take a "softer" approach. The Thai prime minister has since appeared more conciliatory. Apart from the financial compensation, all but a handful of detainees have been freed, and curfews in some of the southernmost districts have been lifted. An independent inquiry has been set up, and the commanding general of the Fourth Army region in charge of the south has been reassigned. It should be a relief to the prime minister that the violence remains limited. The location of the troubles is still confined to the southernmost provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala. Yet what took place at Tak Bai can only galvanize the Muslim separatist cause, at least in the near term. The prime minister needs to deal with the separatism issue squarely and stop pretending that he's merely facing bandits, a mentality that presumably stems from his earlier career in the police force. Overcoming his impulses should lead Mr. Thaksin to assess the southern violence anew. Mr. Thitinan is an assistant professor in the Department of International Relations, Chulalongkorn University. 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