Ukraine's Leader Struggles to Go Quietly March 29, 2002 Ukraine's Leader Struggles to Go Quietly By PATRICK E. TYLER IEV, Ukraine, March 27 — Nearing the end of his political career, President Leonid D. Kuchma is fighting for a safe exit from public life in parliamentary elections this coming Sunday. Nationwide balloting for the 450-seat Supreme Rada, or parliament, will determine whether Mr. Kuchma can galvanize a new majority that would enable him to pick his own successor to run in the 2004 presidential elections, and thereby stave off a raft of criminal proceedings that are expected to follow him out of office. A strong sense of disillusionment with Mr. Kuchma hangs over the contest. His approval ratings have sunk to record lows, while the public perceives that the United States is no longer the champion of Ukraine it was in the aftermath of independence. Early on, Washington established itself as the largest foreign aid donor here to ensure the country would be cleared of nuclear weapons. It supported Mr. Kuchma in his struggle to appease millions of pensioners impoverished by the Soviet collapse. More recently the United States has distanced itself from Mr. Kuchma while supporting the development of democratic institutions. Mr. Kuchma's sagging fortunes have driven him toward a more confrontational approach with Washington and greater reliance on the pro-Russian industrial barons from whom he draws support. The tension has been evident as the Bush administration, along with NATO, has tried to stop the flow of weapons from Ukraine to Macedonia, Africa and perhaps Iraq, and American officials have pressed for a full investigation into the deaths of journalists in Ukraine. Days after the election, a team of agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation will arrive here, invited to assess the long-stalled inquiry into the death of Georgy Gongadze, a Ukrainian journalist whose decapitated body was found six weeks after he disappeared in September 2000. Mr. Kuchma was later revealed in secret recordings to be conspiring with top aides to abduct and terrorize Mr. Gongadze. "Kuchma and his circle have two paths," said Oleksandr V. Turchinov, a top opposition strategist. "Either they gain a controlling majority that will ensure Kuchma's security, or the democratic forces will form a majority, and Kuchma and many of the people around him will go to jail. Therefore he is struggling for his life." The F.B.I. team was due here last Sept. 13, but the trip was postponed due to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States. It is now scheduled to arrive in early April to review all aspects of the Ukrainian investigation into Mr. Gongadze's death. If Mr. Kuchma's forces succeed in building a new parliamentary majority, experts here say that he will begin the search for a prime minister and successor who will do for him what Russia's president, Vladimir V. Putin, has done for former President Boris N. Yeltsin: allow him a peaceful retirement free from prosecution on corruption allegations that have dogged him. "The president is concerned to avoid a situation where the deputies who would impeach him would have a majority," Ukraine's first president, Leonid Kravchuk, said in an interview. He is also running for Parliament, promoting a democratic-socialist model for Ukraine. Ukraine's Constitution prohibits Mr. Kuchma from seeking a third term, and even a highly successful outcome this weekend would leave his factional forces well short of the two-thirds majority required to amend the constitution. The parliamentary contest pits "Our Ukraine," a bloc of center-right parties led by former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko, against "For a United Ukraine," a bloc of pro-Kuchma parties led by the chief of the presidential administration, Volodymyr Litvin. Mr. Litvin's organization has been accused of pressuring and intimidating public sector workers to get out the vote on behalf of Mr. Kuchma. A memo leaked this month that appeared to be from the presidential administration indicated that Mr. Kuchma's forces have plans "to secure technological breakdown of the electronic vote count system for at least two hours for detailed specification of results" on election night. Officials of the administration denounced it as false. With Mr. Kuchma's coalition trailing both Mr. Yushchenko's bloc and the Communists, concern that his forces will try to tamper with the vote results has prompted Europe's Organization of Security and Cooperation to mobilize 1,000 election observers to monitor many of the 33,000 polling stations on Sunday. Opinion polls have shown Mr. Yushchenko's coalition leading with about 25 percent of the vote, followed by the Communists under Petro Simonenko at about 15 percent and the pro-Kuchma parties at from 7 to 15 percent. Some Ukrainians have cast this election as a battle between Russia and the United States for influence in Ukraine, a nation the size of France that is still struggling to put down the foundations of statehood 11 years after it declared independence. Mr. Yushchenko is a popular reformer whose wife is American and once worked at the White House as a national security aide. The pro-Kuchma bloc commands the support of former Soviet industrialists in the southern and eastern regions of the country where Russian is still the predominant language. Mr. Kuchma himself is a former Soviet rocket factory boss who has successfully played off both constituencies since coming to power in 1994, seeking closer ties to Europe and NATO while maintaining close relations with Moscow. But Western investors continue to shun Ukraine because of corruption and scandals surrounding Mr. Kuchma. So the 64-year-old leader has bolstered political and economic ties with Russia, seeking to rebuild parts of the Soviet-era military industrial complex that are able to compete with the United States and NATO countries in space technologies and arms sales abroad. Though Mr. Yushchenko is hoping to succeed Mr. Kuchma, he has refused to declare open opposition to the president he once called "father," even though Mr. Kuchma played a prominent role in orchestrating a no-confidence vote last year that ended Mr. Yushchenko's tenure as prime minister. Mr. Yushchenko's bloc includes many regional candidates loyal to Mr. Kuchma. Some opposition leaders have accused Mr. Yushchenko of building a Trojan Horse that will do more to strengthen Mr. Kuchma than weaken him when the new Parliament is seated. Throughout the campaign, Mr. Yushchenko has refused to align himself with the popular opposition figure Yulia Tymoshenko, whom Mr. Kuchma fired as deputy prime minister and has repeatedly tried to jail. Ms. Tymoshenko's faction, along with the Socialists under Oleksandr Moroz and the Progressive Socialists under Natalya Vitrenko are trailing, but Ms. Tymoshenko's ratings were said to be surging in recent weeks. However, a resolution passed by the United States House of Representatives on March 21 urging the government of Ukraine to ensure a free and fair election process on Sunday drew immediate and harsh criticism across the political spectrum. "We will either be a nation and a state, or we will be a football field where strategic partners play," Mr. Kuchma said. Home | Back to International | Search | Help Back to Top Copyright 2002 The New York Times Company | Privacy Information